The Probability of Us Living to Be Much Older?
How much longer might humans live?
This question has fascinated scientists, philosophers, and dreamers for centuries. The average human lifespan has already increased dramatically over the past hundred years thanks to advances in medicine, public health, and technology, and the prospect of radically extending human life remains one of humanity’s most compelling frontiers.
A recent paper published in the scientific journal Nature Aging argues that radical life extension is unlikely to happen in the 21st century. The paper has sparked fascinating conversation in the longevity industry around topics such as realistic deliverables for the field, the predictive value of past technological trajectories, the reasons behind lifespan decreases in the western world, incremental versus bold research goals, and where we should go from here. Matt and Nick discuss the paper and provide their own take on the prospect of radical life extension and what we can realistically expect to see in the coming decades.
Check out the links below for further information and/or reading about some of the things we discussed in this podcast episode. Note that we do not necessarily endorse or agree with the content of these readings, but present them as supplementary material that may deepen your understanding of the topic after you listen to our podcast. This list is in no way exhaustive, but it’s a good start!
Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century
This paper, which is the focus of this episode, catalyzed some interesting debate in the longevity community. It argues that life expectancy improvements have declined since 1990, we are unlikely to see radical human life extension in the 21st century, and that survival until the age of 100 is unlikely to exceed 15 and 5 percent for females and males respectively. In response to the paper, some in the field argued that previous trajectories are not necessarily predictive of future ones, and that there are in fact developments in the works that may justify cautious optimism about radical life extension.
Living beyond 100: Can humans achieve radical life extension in the 21st Century?
If you don't have time to read the whole paper that the episode discusses, this post provides a useful summary of the paper's core concepts and arguments.
Wealthy nations might be reaching a life expectancy limit, study suggests — at least for now
This article also summarizes the paper, and includes interesting quotes from the study's first author Jay Olshansky and other prominent researchers. Olshansky notes that he focuses on achievable improvements he can make to his lifestyle, such as doing regular exercise and wearing hearing aids to decrease dementia risk, to increase his odds of living in good health for longer.
The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950
Gains in life expectancy at birth have fallen since 1950, according to this paper. The paper, which covers 139 countries, examined increases in life expectancy at birth over the next ten years between 1950 and 2009 and found slowed gains even in countries where starting life expectancy at birth was particularly low (e.g. under 51 years of age). The authors point out that the slowdown is surprising given the scientific breakthroughs that occurred during the analysis period, which include improved treatments for diseases such as AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis.
Here is some useful data on life expectancy over the last two centuries as well as on other interesting longevity topics such as the sex gap in life expectancy, the impact of pandemics such as the Spanish flu, and why life expectancy in the United States is lower than one might expect. The authors note that while many believe that reductions in child mortality are responsible for most of the life expectancy gains, life expectancy increases are actually observable across all age groups.
